This opinion piece was first published in the new PocketGamer.biz newsletter. Sign up for more pieces like this straight to your inbox right here.
The estimates are in. Sensor Tower data shows that Supercell’s Squad Busters generated $24 million in net revenue ($34m gross) worldwide across the App Store and Google Play during its first 30 days.
In that time it also accumulated 40m downloads. For context, Supercell’s last launch in December 2018, Brawl Stars, picked up $43m in net revenue during its first 30 days. Clash Royale? That racked up $115m in its first month.
Comparatively, it’s a poor start, and revenue has declined since the launch week. Such are the great expectations of the famous Finnish developer – from industry onlookers and its own high quality bar – that anything less than a $1 billion blockbuster and a bombastic return to its former highs is seen as a failure.
Supercell holds a unique position in the industry. For almost any other studio, Squad Busters would be a major hit, a flagship game. If revenue stabilises, as it has for the last few weeks, it would be on course for approximately $200m net revenue in its first 12 months, and close to $300m gross revenue. It’s just one month, though, so who knows where we’ll end up.
It should be noted, according to AppMagic, that Supercell ranked as the world’s No. 2 top grossing games publisher in June, so it’s not exactly struggling or falling flat. In fact, that was the company’s best month for player spending on the App Store and Google Play since June 2017.
But has the growth that it’s achieved so far been worth the cultural and structural changes, along with its large recruitment drive?
Supercell is no slouch. It’s still a hit maker. But perhaps its future, in a changed mobile market, will see more games that are certified hits, but don’t reach the $1bn mark in quite such a rapid fashion.
Would that mean Supercell has lost its magic? That depends on your definition of success and failure.
