Since 5G networks have finite capacity, this growth streak will ultimately end. Wireless companies rely on the same networks to serve 330 million smartphone users in the US.
Both T-Mobile and Verizon are said to be quickly using up their network resources and according to some Bernstein analysts, their networks may start getting congested before 2030.
We believe the signs of the next significant congestion point could appear before the turn of the decade
—Bernstein analysts, May 2025
The spectrum shortfall will start to impact consumers as early as 2026, and by 2027 networks will be unable to meet nearly a quarter of traffic demand in high-traffic areas during peak hours. This will worsen to only 27% of peak demand being met by 2035. Without more spectrum, improving capacity will be challenging, as other levers besides spectrum yield significantly diminishing returns.
—CTIA, May 2025
Ookla’s findings appear to support that, with the connectivity insights company reporting that FWA speeds offered by T-Mobile and Verizon have been increasing significantly over the past year. If the networks were overloaded, this wouldn’t be the case.
Bernstein analysts also found that T-Mobile‘s FWA customers consume roughly 30 times more data than smartphone customers. According to their estimates, Verizon is using about 83 percent of its total network capacity, T-Mobile is using nearly 68 percent of what’s available, and AT&T is using 44 percent of its total capacity.
They cautioned that their calculation was “not an absolute measure of utilization” and does not imply that carriers are “operating near 100% utilization of their capacity.”
For now, there is no need to worry about capacity constraints. However, it’s hard to predict future demand based on today’s network usage so FWA providers may want to start looking for new spectrum sources.
