Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the highly anticipated finale of the franchise, is set to hit theaters with hopes of surpassing its predecessors at the box office, despite facing the worst reviews in the series. According to analysis by Deadline, the film aims to achieve a domestic opening of $60 million to $65 million and a global debut of $140 million or more.
The performance of popcorn flicks in the post-pandemic era have shown that critical acclaim is not their sole determining factor. Despite unfavorable reviews, Jurassic World: Dominion earned $145 million in its domestic opening. Similarly, The Little Mermaid started with $118.8 million over four days. Dial of Destiny holds a 65% fresh rating, lower than previous chapters Raiders of the Lost Ark (93% in 1981), Temple of Doom (77% in 1984), Last Crusade (84% in 1989), and Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (77% in 2008).
Note that the projected figures mentioned are for the standard 3-day weekend, excluding the extended five-day period with the Independence Day holiday that Dial of Destiny will benefit from after premiering stateside on June 30.
A domestic opening of $60 million or more would put Dial of Destiny in the range of older-skewing films like No Time to Die ($55.2 million) and Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($61.2 million). However, the film needs to attract younger audiences, and Dial of Destiny likely lacks the broad appeal of properties like Star Wars.
Compared to Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Dial of Destiny is expected to have a lower three-day opening than the former’s $100.1 million start. The 2008 movie had the second-best opening in the franchise, earning $151.9 million over five days. Worldwide, Kingdom of the Crystal Skull made $272.1 million.
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