Financial services company Morgan Stanley conducted a survey of lead times and discovered enthusiasm for Apple’s latest device is far lower than it was for its predecessors. The company believes that demand for the new phones is lower than before, according to a message to investors seen by AppleInsider.
Here’s how lead times for the iPhone 16 family compare with the iPhone 15:
- iPhone 16 Pro Max: 25.5 days (vs 43.5 days in 2023)
- iPhone 16 Pro: 18.5 days (vs 32.5 in 2023)
- iPhone 16: 9 days (vs 14 in 2023)
- iPhone 16 Plus: 7.9 days (vs 13.9 in 2023)
When we aggregate all of our iPhone lead time data. average iPhone 16 lead times from pre-order to today stands at 14 days, shortest amongst all cycles in the last 5 years and roughly in-line with the iPhone 12 cycle.
Morgan Stanley, September 2024
The average lead time for the iPhone 16 series is 14 days, which is the shortest wait time in the last five years. Morgan Stanley sees a 50 percent chance that Apple will trim supply orders but also cautions that delivery times aren’t the most predictive measure of performance during the early days of a product.
Lead times for different iPhone models. | Image Credit – Morgan Stanley
A lead time is the period between receiving an order and delivering the product to a customer. A shorter lead time doesn’t necessarily mean that a product is not selling well. In this case, it’s possible that Apple accurately forecasted early demand and has sufficient iPhones in stock to ensure faster delivery than previous launches, some of which were disrupted by the pandemic.
Morgan Stanley has also provided more insights into the latest launch, claiming early buyers are upgrading because their old phones were due for upgrade or they want a better camera and improved battery life. AI doesn’t seem to be factoring heavily into purchase decisions right now, but that might be because Apple Intelligence is currently available in beta.
Multiple signs, from weak pre-order demand to early employee discounts, have been suggesting that the iPhone 16 is struggling. While there have been some promising reports too, Morgan Stanley’s observations have added more weight to the ones that claim the phones are not off to a good start.
Historically, lead times have proven to be a reliable tool for assessing demand, and shorter lead times often point to an underwhelming launch.
