Is the foldable market in trouble all of a sudden? I don’t buy it!

It might seem like it happened an eternity ago, but it’s only been five years since Samsung (properly) released the world’s first “mainstream” foldable. Even though the OG Galaxy Fold was far from perfect (to be kind), and Motorola’s first reimagined Razr about a year later was even worse, all the market analysts and industry pundits were quick to predict this new and innovative type of mobile device would soon take over the world.

Fast-forward half a decade, and it’s safe to say… that hasn’t happened yet. Despite the undeniable evolution of both book-style and clamshell foldable designs, these futuristic and now surprisingly refined products are still not preferred by the global masses. Obviously, the market segment is much larger today than it was in 2020 or 2022, but Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip families, the Motorola Razr roster, and Huawei’s increasingly popular Mate Xs, Pockets, and Flips just can’t shake off the “niche” label.

This stagnation is apparently so bad that multiple brands are considering exiting the market or not joining it anytime soon, which I personally believe to be a greatly exaggerated report. Allow me to explain why…

Playing the long game

I’m sorry to tell you this, but if you truly expected back in 2019 to see annual foldable sales hit 100 million units by 2024, then you might need a major reality check. Yes, the device category grew at a pretty incredible pace for the first two or three years because it was new, exciting, rapidly evolving, and… because it’s much easier to jump from 0 to a million than from a million to 10 million and then from 10 million to 100 million.

If you don’t know how the latest numbers look, TrendForce estimated that close to 16 million foldables were shipped worldwide last year, while according to Counterpoint Research, this year’s Q2 total stood at under 3 million units. Those are both perfectly acceptable results, mind you, which represent decent increases over the full-year 2022 and Q2 2023 tallies respectively.

Why in the world would Vivo abandon the foldable market after releasing this X Fold 3 Pro stunner? | Image Credit — PhoneArena

Looking ahead to the near future, the vast majority of reliable analysts and experts think the market will continue to slowly expand for the next few quarters (at least). Of course, it’s impossible to know how successful foldable devices will be in three or five years, but right now, this doesn’t strike me as a segment a brand like Oppo and Vivo would want to give up on. Not after presumably working so hard on such amazing products as the Find N3 and X Fold 3 Pro.

And while I realize that the sales figures, and perhaps more importantly, the profit margins of those lower-cost Galaxy Z Fold 6 alternatives might not be as amazing as Oppo and Vivo probably expected a few years ago, perseverance is likely to prove the key to success in the foldable market in the long run. This is not a fad or a rapidly passing trend, but it’s not going to replace “conventional” smartphones either, so top-tier companies should remain patient and continue to give prospective buyers more and more reasons to switch from their boring old rectangular slabs.

Foldables are not for everyone

Now here’s the part of that recent report about multiple companies turning their backs on foldables that I do buy – Infinix, Itel, and Tecno have abandoned their plans to enter the market soon. If you’ve never heard of those three brands, don’t worry, you’re not alone.

I barely know two of them from places like X and the occasional India-focused headline in my daily news feeds, and following the latest mobile tech news is pretty much what puts food on my table. Bottom line, and I mean this with the utmost respect, these are not brands I ever expected to see make waves in the global foldable landscape. Not today, not next year, and probably not in 10 years either.

The Find N3 series is the pinnacle of Oppo’s foldable portfolio… for now.” | Image Credit — PhoneArena

Let me put this differently: just as not every decent basketball player is cut out for the NBA elite (hello, Bronny!), some otherwise respectable smartphone makers are unlikely to prove a right fit for the elite foldable “league.” But that doesn’t necessarily mean said league is in danger of losing any high-profile sponsorship deals.

Not when LeBron Sr., which for the sake of this metaphor would probably be Samsung, continues to evolve his game, always trying new plays (like the Galaxy Z Fold Special Edition) to keep rising stars like Luka Doncic and Giannis (Oppo and Vivo) at bay. And then there’s Nikola Jokic (Huawei), who you may not have seen coming just a few years back but whose supremacy has become impossible to deny.

Clunky basketball metaphors aside, I really do feel like foldables have much to offer ahead of them (including but not limited to tri-fold designs), and any top mobile vendor considering a retirement in the near future would be extremely foolish to go through with such a move.

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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian’s passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for ‘adequate’ over ‘overpriced’.

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