- HTML5 games and alternative app stores on the rise in 2025
- Privacy will worsen before it gets better and walled gardens continue to win big
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As 2024 begins to draw to a close Kwalee’s vice president of mobile publishing, John Wright has shared his thoughts on what the games industry could expect to see in the year ahead.
Wright offers insight on trends such as the rise of HTML5 games, the rise of AI and the popularity of alternative app stores.
These are my own opinions and nothing else. I hope everyone who reads this article learns something and collectively as an industry this helps us all grow and improve together.
I am still a strong believer in the principle of “a rising tide lifts all ships”.
1. HTML5 games
A trailblazer in Q3 for mobile games, the industry has truly woken up to the substantial revenue potential outside the walled gardens of Apple and Google.
The resurgence and expansion of HTML5 games are closely linked to developers seeking to boost studio EBITDA and, ultimately, ensure survival.
Platforms like Wechat and Telegram offer not only incremental revenue but also massive, engaged audiences and opportunities for cost-effective, targeted user acquisition.
Meta Instant Games has just integrated IAPs for the first time, and double-digit CAGR growth on Poki and CrazyGames highlights the market’s potential. All signs point to HTML5 as something every developer should be exploring next year.
2. Alternative stores
In line with the first point, alternative app stores have surged over recent months. With the EU’s DMA loosening the duopoly’s hold on mobile gaming, new opportunities are emerging.
I’ve personally observed LTVs from Amazon store users hitting 30% to 40% higher than iOS recently.
I’ve personally observed LTVs from Amazon store users hitting 30% to 40% higher than iOS recently. Combined with the expansion of alternatives like Samsung Electronics, Huawei, OneStore, and technology like KYLN, there’s now room to negotiate better terms (lower IAP tax) and increase profitability.
A special mention goes to Epic Games, set to launch its new store imminently. Leveraging some of their PCC playbook, Epic could be an excellent example of how everyone benefits from prioritising this strategy.
3. D2C / Web stores
If you haven’t seen at least 10 articles on this already, where have you been? But in all seriousness, this trend is another success story fueled by the DMA, allowing companies to maximise profits by cutting down on IAP fees.
It’s a no-brainer, right? If your games generate 30% to 50% of revenue through IAPs, you should definitely consider testing an integration with one of the many companies now specialising in this.
Some large casual and mid-core developers are already seeing 30%+ of all revenue coming from direct channels, potentially improving their bottom lines by millions!
4. Privacy will worsen before it gets better
Last year, I predicted that Google Sandbox / Privacy would begin affecting our ability to conduct UA on Android. I may have been a bit early, but it seems likely that we’ll feel the effects by the end of H1 this year.
Last year, I predicted that Google Sandbox / Privacy would begin affecting our ability to conduct UA on Android.
While this won’t be another ad-apocalypse like Apple’s ATT, given Google’s ad-focused business model, we should still expect a decline. I’m predicting around a 20% downturn for Android overall.
However, there is light at the end of the tunnel, and finally, we’re seeing green shoots of technology evening the playing field back in developers’ favour. AppsFlyer and Geeklab have tech cooking you should all check out!
5. Walled gardens continue to win – and win big
Eric Seufert has been saying this for as long as I can remember, but I truly believe that while we’re seeing the democratisation of areas like app stores and the IAP landscape (which is great for developers), walled gardens and companies with the most varied and expansive datasets will continue to dominate.
A clear and recent example is AppLovin vs. Unity. AppLovin is now approximately 12 times larger in market cap and could potentially swallow up Unity if it wanted to, a major contributor to this growth and success is because of extremely smart data plays with the acquisitions of MoPub and Adjust.
That’s a scary thought for my old colleagues! The sheer scale of these data-driven giants means their dominance is set to grow even further.
6. AI becomes central to game ideation and design
AI adoption has been significant in areas like marketing (e.g., UGC and AI-generated actors for content) and within big studios for tasks like automating QA by mimicking user behaviour.
I predict that in 2025, we’ll see the first game where over 50% of its foundation, such as the core loop, base code for the game mechanic, and initial documentation, will be generated by AI.
However, very few companies are leveraging AI in the earlier stages of game ideation, design (beyond level creation), and production.
I predict that in 2025, we’ll see the first game where over 50% of its foundation, such as the core loop, base code for the game mechanic, and initial documentation (GDD), will be generated by AI.
A human team will polish it to completion, but AI will play a significant role in these early stages, changing how games are created.
7. Transmedia and IP gain traction in an overly-competitive UA world
Cue Eric Kress rolling his eyes, but hear me out. Transmedia and integrated holistic experiences will begin to engage users on multiple levels. Think series, movies, and games all built around the same IP, drawing audiences deeper into their favourite characters lore and worlds.
A great example is Arcane Season 2, but I think other players SEGA and The Pokémon Company International are following suit. Pokémon’s TCGP launch is a case in point. I believe it will generate at least $1 billion in the next 12 months.
The real advantage of transmedia IP is clear: it enables mass-market acquisition for free (thanks to an established audience), effective cross-promotion across mediums, and cheaper UA through better creative performance driven by brand recognition.
8. Hybrid casual evolves into casual
Hear me out: back in January 2024, during the PGC Live Special with two & a half gamers Gamers, I told Jakub Remiar that hybrid is just a stepping stone to casual games. And I stand by it.
From my own experience, the ‘hybrid’ games I’ve been working on lately are arguably only a step away from being fully casual.
From my own experience, the ‘hybrid’ games I’ve been working on lately are arguably only a step away from being fully casual. They already include the bulk of casual features, player motivations, and economic drivers. Sure, they might lack full PvP functionality for now, but that could easily be added in the future.
My prediction is simple: hybrid devs have learned the ropes of casual development and will fully transition by 2025. Why? The hybrid market’s TAM is under $2bn yearly, while casual gaming sits at a massive $40bn TAM. That’s a far bigger pool of quality users to compete for and one that hybrid devs will chase.
9. Big publishers dominate, small studios pivot to steam
The trend of consolidation through M&A continues, but here’s the kicker: from a UA and monetisation perspective, it’s becoming almost impossible to self-publish unless you’re already a certain size.
Setting up accounts with major mediation platforms and UA providers isn’t easy, and managing them successfully requires expertise and relationships that smaller studios often lack.
Those who can’t find success on mobile will increasingly pivot to Steam.
As a result, more developers will gravitate toward partnerships with bigger publishers.
Meanwhile, those who can’t find success on mobile will increasingly pivot to Steam. We’ve already seen a rise in AA and “III” games this year, making Steam an attractive option for many.
However, in my opinion, breaking into Steam is even harder than succeeding on mobile.
10. Anime games are booming: Triple-A design and cross-platform growth
As someone who’s been into anime and manga since I was 12, it’s exciting to see the genre finally go mainstream. It’s no longer just “geeky”, it’s f*cking cool!
Netflix’s live-action strategy, especially with the success of One Piece, has propelled Western adoption. Disney+ picking up Bleach: Thousand-Year Blood War was another massive milestone.
In gaming, major releases like the Korean manhwa-inspired Solo Leveling: Rise showcased the potential for mobile and cross-platform experiences. For example, Dungeon & Fighter Mobile reportedly made $800 million in its first month in China alone! While the Western release (expected later in 2025) might not reach the same heights, I think it’ll still make waves globally.
The anime gaming genre is poised for a strong double-digit CAGR, with increasing Western acceptance. Shoutout to my friend Adrien Bacchi for his upcoming release of Manga RPG!
