Mobile Mavens: How serious is market saturation and is it an excuse for failure?

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The mobile games market is back to revenue growth, though it’s not the rocket ship it used to be. Meanwhile, breaking into the top grossing rankings with a new release is a tough task in a mature and saturated market, with titles up against forever games and dominant publishers.

Exactly what challenges does market saturation bring? And, as Mode 7 Games’ Paul Kilduff-Taylor wrote in this excellent article, is genre saturation an excuse for failure?

To explore this further, we spoke with industry experts to gain their insights on whether market saturation hinders new games, if audiences are actually overwhelmed and ultimately, if this significantly impacts the industry. 

Adrien Bacchi

CEO

at ChibiPhoenix

Market saturation is often seen as a major challenge in gaming, but compared to older entertainment industries, for example, movies, we see much larger volumes of content without stifling new hits.

Globally, around 7,000 movies are released annually, while the book industry produces 1.5 million new titles annually. In gaming, Steam alone saw nearly 19,000 new games in 2024, however, only about 20% of them attracted any real player base.

This suggests that the real issue isn’t market saturation. Success doesn’t come from avoiding competition but from differentiation. Sub-genres, unique mechanics, strong branding, and community-driven engagement define winners. The market isn’t saturated – it’s competitive. And in competition, creativity wins.

Tom Storr

Founder

at The Experimentation Group

Saturation is common in economies. The pool of consumers is finite, as is the time and money they have to spend. Within those limits, dominance often compounds; top studios leverage their scale to stay ahead, making it hard for smaller teams to compete.

In addition, our industry has recently faced several large, sustained shocks that have made life even more difficult. High interest rates and inflation have slowed investment and spending. Post-IDFA, UA remains a challenge. And competition for attention is fiercer than ever; short-form video is as much a competitor as any game. Resources are stretched in all directions and we have responded with conservatism.

However, economies evolve over time. There are many examples of new entrants breaking through mature markets to succeed. In match-3, Candy Crush came from nothing to overtake Bejeweled, later the ‘Scapes games and Royal Match did the same.

Fortnite pivoted from near-obsolescence to a generational battle royale title. Beyond gaming, Apple first took on PCs, then mobile phones, to become the juggernaut it is today. There are countless more examples.

Consumers are hungry for new experiences. The way to win is ruthless iteration on the things that work:

Álvaro Pinto

COO and Co-founder

at Aptoide

It’s true that many games compete within the same genres and many look similar, but player demand is far from static. Gamers are always looking for fresh experiences, and even in crowded categories, innovation through outstanding design and creatives, sub-genres, or hybrid gameplay can create breakout hits.

The challenge isn’t just about competition, it’s also discoverability. Saturation might make it harder for new games to stand out, but the opportunity is there in a market with two billion gamers globally.

With smart and innovative distribution and marketing, great games can still find their audience. And we also can see market saturation opening doors for even more innovation and creativity in game design.

Vadim Andreev

CEO & Co-Founder

at Rokky

Market saturation is not the issue that the industry makes it out to be; for one, the idea of ‘too many games’ can vary on the platform in discussion. For example, on mobile, even clones with heavy marketing can secure success.

For developers, the increased competition has made attracting an audience become increasingly difficult. However, established franchises with robust marketing budgets can and often do dominate the market conversation, overshadowing innovative newcomers.

At the end of the day, players do not see this as a problem. They are able to discover quality titles that resonate with their tastes and playstyles. Gamers often seek unique gameplay and fresh narratives, regardless of the number of similar games available.

Peter Fodor

Founder

at AppAgent

Are we talking about market saturation or market maturity? There’s a big difference. Saturation happens when a product or service has reached its maximum level of adoption within a given market. Can we really say that about mobile games as an entertainment category?

Maturity, on the other hand, is when growth slows, market leaders are well established, and major shifts happen less frequently.

Let’s look at what’s happening in mobile gaming to find the answer:

We see that freemium is the dominant business model, which naturally limits the types of games that make sense to create. Only a few genres generate a high enough LTV to justify investment in paid user acquisition, which has become the primary growth driver as organic traffic continues to decline.

Live ops keep players engaged for years, reducing the need to switch to new games. Big studios have the data, capital, and IP to identify winning concepts faster. This is the reality we’re in. But is the market truly saturated – meaning it has reached its maximum level? I don’t think so.

Look at the US App Store’s top 20 grossing games – seven of them were released after the pandemic. While Android gaming market showed a downward trend of -1.4% in revenue for 2024, the iOS gaming market grew by 5.6%.

Downloads are, thanks to emerging markets, growing on both platforms. To me, that’s proof the market is mature, but not saturated.

As a growth and creative agency working with top gaming studios, we see our partners actively exploring new game concepts, blending proven mechanics with fresh approaches, doubling down on marketability tests, and focusing more on brand-building.

In a mature market, product differentiation is key to success.

Overall, market saturation definitely exists, but not because there’s no room for new games – it’s more because studios prefer making small adjustments to proven formulas over bold, and thus risky, novel ideas.

There’s a cultural risk aversion endemic in the industry, but risk carries reward and the relationship between the two is quite asymmetric. First and foremost, games are supposed to be fun. ZBD surveys show that users quickly tire of same-y, ad-laden content if there’s no reward or upside.

In lieu of taking risks on innovative concepts and genres, studios still have plenty of room to innovate on incentivising players, which is why the rewarded gaming market is currently booming.

Christian Lövstedt

General Manager

at Midjiwan

Market saturation is a growing topic within the industry, however, we must consider that the actual demographic of potential players is still growing.

One could argue that, in terms of game output, the market is saturated as new games compete for players’ attention, but the overall market will continue to expand as more people discover a love for gaming. 

In terms of the similarity of games being released, I feel that, particularly in mobile gaming, innovation has stalled in the last couple of years.

The free-to-play model is challenging and tends to lead to games that are quite similar, relying on very aggressive monetisation mechanics. However, I believe players will always be interested in new games and IPs.

James Crabb

Head of gaming partnerships

Yes, market saturation exists. Particularly in genres such as Puzzle (match and merge), FPS or battle royale.

Games that are similar in terms of core gameplay are competing for the same audience which leads to audience fragmentation and reduced engagement across the board, making it much harder for new entrants to succeed.

This increase in competition is what drives innovation though. Introducing new core mechanics, meta-game features and the combining of genres and narratives that capture the attention of players and allow new niches to be carved out.

Ultimately this idea of market saturation is what drives our industry forward.