Video games industry analysis firm DFC Intelligence has published an updated report on the upcoming launch of the Nintendo Switch 2, raising its previous sales forecast from 15 million units to 16 million units sold by the end of 2025.
This is based on the fact that Nintendo tends to have a conservative approach in its forecast of a new product (which is 15 million units). With the original Switch, Nintendo had originally estimated to sell 10 million units but ended up selling 15 million. DFC believes Switch 2 could sell as many as 20 million units if the manufacturing could meet the demand for the console, but this is unlikely to happen, hence the 16 million forecast.
Following the delay of Grand Theft Auto VI to May 26, 2026, DFC thinks that the Nintendo Switch 2 launch is even more critical for the industry, going as far as claiming that it’s arguably the most important console launch ever. GTA VI would have significantly propelled sales of Sony’s PlayStation 5 and Microsoft’s Xbox Series consoles, but with that factor gone for 2025, DFC now forecasts a decline in console video game software sales in both North America and Europe. North America is expected to see a 2% decline in 2025, with Europe anticipated to see revenue remain flat from 2024.
In the Far East, though, Japan is estimated to see a 25% uptick in console software revenue this year. That’s mainly thanks to the aggressive pricing of the Nintendo Switch 2 on its home turf, where users can grab a region-locked version for ¥49,980 (around $342), a much lower price than anywhere else in the world. After adding Japanese sales, DFC forecasts global video game console sales to grow by 3% in 2025.
Overall, DFC Intelligence estimates that the Nintendo Switch 2 could sell over 100 million units by the end of 2029, which would make it the leading console platform by far. As previously discussed in our interview with firm founder, CEO, and principal David Cole, DFC believes Nintendo is positioning the new console as a primary gaming system and could potentially become the lead partner for several third-party publishers.
As for the industry as a whole, DFC expects GTA VI to help kickstart a new growth phase for the videogame industry between 2026 and 2029, setting new hardware and software sales records.
