A fresh Bloomberg report reveals that Nintendo intends to increase production for the Nintendo Switch hardware for the fiscal year due to begin in April. The move, rather unexpected at this point in the console’s life (the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017), comes because Nintendo believes it could sell more consoles by meeting demand now that the chip shortage is more or less over.
However, that assumption is challenged by analyst forecasts. For example, Kenji Fukuyama, Director of Equity Research at UBS Securities, said in a statement:
Sales in the recent holiday season were not that strong even with improved supply. People will soon start speculating about next-generation hardware and are likely to refrain from buying the old system. A slowdown in Switch sales momentum is unavoidable.
Historically, sales of Nintendo consoles have largely been driven by the company’s biggest first-party exclusives. Fire Emblem Engage is out today, but it’s not one of those major IPs. The only assured heavyweight hitting in 2023 is The Legend of Zelda: Tears of Kingdom, which could definitely boost Nintendo Switch sales when it releases on May 12th, especially if Nintendo prepares a special console for its launch, as suggested by a recent leak.
However, Nintendo’s true ace in the sleeve could be Metroid Prime 4. Nintendo Switch fans have been waiting a long time for this game, originally announced at E3 2017. At that time, Nintendo planned to outsource its development to Bandai Namco Studios, but the project had to be restarted in early 2019 under its usual caretaker, Retro Studios. We don’t know many details about it, though job listings from late 2020 point to an increased focus on emotional and innovative scenes that elevate the narrative. If Nintendo released both The Legend of Zelda and Metroid in the same year, Switch hardware sales could indeed defy analyst estimates.
On the other hand, the Nintendo Switch successor is likely to be planned for a 2024 release, given that the Japanese company is still focused on producing the Switch in 2023.
