“I don’t think we will see a near-term impact, as it takes years to build fabs, but by the end of the decade, the US share could rise by a few percentage points,” Gupta said. “It’s hard to give an exact number, but if I were to estimate, I’d say 14-15%. That isn’t a lot, but for the US to gain share, someone else must lose it, and while the US is making efforts, we see similar developments across Asia.”
Yet, if Washington imposes smaller tariffs on imports from countries such as India, Japan, or Malaysia, Taiwanese chipmakers may shift production there rather than to the US, according to Stephen Ezell, vice president at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF).
“Additionally, if the tariffs applied to Chinese chip exports were lower than for Taiwanese exports, Trump would be helping Chinese semiconductor manufacturers, whose exports to the US market would then be less expensive,” Ezell said in a recent note. “So, for this policy to have any real effect, Trump effectively must raise tariffs on all semiconductors, and that would likely lead to global tit-for-tat.”
Enterprise IT faces tough choices
If semiconductor tariffs drive up costs, enterprises will be forced to reassess spending priorities, potentially delaying or cutting investments in critical IT infrastructure.
Rising chip prices could squeeze budgets for AI, cloud computing, and data center expansions, forcing businesses to make difficult trade-offs.
“On the corporate side, hyperscalers and enterprise players need to brace for impact over the next 2-3 years if high tariffs continue along with the erosion of operating margin,” Faruqui said. “In addition, the boards and CEOs have to boldly make heavy CAPEX investment on US Soil via US and Asian partners as soon as possible to realize HVM on US soil and alleviate operating margin erosion due to tariffs on imports of foreign semiconductor components.”
Fortunately for enterprises reliant on cutting-edge chips, production in the US is slowly taking shape. TSMC’s first Arizona fab is nearing production, with its second and third facilities under development.
